Analysis on Impact of Foreigners' Inflow in Society undergoing Low Fertility and Population Aging

Abstract

◈ 저출산ㆍ고령화에 따른 이민정책의 필요성 ◈ 세계의 저출산ㆍ고령화 추이와 이민정책의 현황 ◈ 우리나라 이민정책과 이민 실태 ◈ 우리나라 저출산고령화 전망 ◈ 저출산고령화 수준에 따른 이민수요 전망 ◈ 저출산고령화 추이에 따른 이민정책 방안

This study aimed at analyzing the impact of foreigners including laborers and immigrants in demographic and socio-economical aspects. In doing so, applied were several methods such as population projection, general equilibrium model, projection of national pension, and sample survey on conflicts between foreigners and natives. The main findings are as follows; Firstly, the demographic impact of foreigners' inflow is related to population decline and population ageing. The population projection revealed that the increase in the inflow of foreigners would alleviate the speed of depopulation, accounting for 9.2 percent of total population at the medium variant assumption of international migration and 12.8 percent at the high variant and 5.6 percent at the low variant, respectively as of 2050. The population ageing would be also alleviated along with increase of foreigners. The proportion of the elderly people, aged 65 or older, to the total population will be 36.5 percent at the medium variant of international migration, 37.4 percent at the low variant, 35.7 percent at the high variant in 2050. However, such differences in population ageing between international migration assumptions can be deemed small, especially compared to 34.0 percent under the assumption that TFR will reach the replacement level up to 2040. Secondly, the foreigners' influx will contribute to economic growth through increase in GDP and per capita GDP in the long run. However, it can be realistic if the labor productivity of the foreigners are not too low. The increase in foreigners' influx appears to be less contributive to economic growth than the increase of fertility to the replacement level in 2040. Thirdly, as the number of foreigners increases, the depletion of national pension fund will be delayed by one year, lowering the premium rate, under the different assumptions on international migration. In the long run, the increase in fertility level will be, however, more contributive to financial stabilization of national pension scheme. The social conflicts due to the increase in foreigners' influx may take place in the future; emotional conflicts, cultural conflicts, and resource-competition conflicts in that order. In conclusion, the trends in scale and characteristics of foreigners and their impact on the Korean society should be taken into deep considerations in establishing the population policy, especially the policies against low fertility and population ageing.