A Study on Methodology Development of Long-term Projection of Social Expenditure

Abstract

사회보장재정추계를 위한 방법론을 결정하는데 필요한 기초자료와 선행적 검토사항을 분석 - 사회보장재정추계를 위한 방법론연구로 재정추계의 범위, 추계방법, 평가지표에 대한 기준을 설정 － 특히, 사회보장법의 개정으로 2년 마다 사회보장재정을 장기추계해야 하는 만큼 기존의 제도별 추계방법론을 검토하여 국가차원에서 공통으로 적용할 기준을 만드는 것이 필요

Long-term projection of social expenditure could reveal many information on developmental stages of social security system. The absolute level and relative level of expenditure could imply quantitative and qualitative aspects of social security system. Despite the importance of long-term projection of social expenditure, there has never been attempt to establish consensus on projection methodologies. There have been many attempts to produce long-term projection of social expenditure in aggregate or in individual programs. However, all these outputs propose different assumptions on range of social security system, macro variables, and micro variables defining each programs. As a result, each projection produces different results and causes confusion in interpreting the results. This study is the first attempt to establish a single standard on methodology of long-term projection of social expenditures. This study does not stop at just establishing unified methodology but to propose tools for evaluating levels, composition and growth pattern of social expenditure.