Establishing and Analyzing the Time Series Data of National Fertility Survey

Abstract

The National Fertility Survey(the original titles of these surveys varied from one to another and hence 'National Fertility Survey' will be used as a representative one) has been taken since 1964 by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs(KIHASA). The survey has, as a sample survey on a national-wide basis, made great contribution to developing theories and polices in the areas of fertility, health and welfare. The survey has advantages that can measure levels and patterns of marriage and childbirth for the population as a whole or the specific group of population and that it includes a variety of items on the questionnaire. In 2011, the surveys taken in different years since 1971 were integrated into a DB. This study aimed at analyzed the change in fertility and nuptiality behaviors using the time series of National Fertility Surveys on the DB. This main results and implications can be summarized as follows; Firstly, the marriage delay has been continuously reinforced and hence the policy approaches to check the delay should be made strengthened. Secondly, the practice of contraception for ceasing childbearing has increased in recent years and hence the causes of involuntary contraception and ceasing childbearing should be identified for their responses. The rates of pregnancy wastage, specifically by induced abortion, have appeared to be very high and hence the multiple dimensions of efforts such as pro-life campaign, improvement in reproductive health, support for avoiding the involuntary pregnancy wastage, etc. should be made to decrease the pregnancy wastage. Lastly but not the least, the ideal number of children has been long maintained at slightly over 2 children after excluding irregularities for a few years of the survey. However, the number of children ever born and the expected number of children have continued to decrease. Therefore, the gap between the ideal number of children and the number of children ever born should be narrowed by strengthening the policies in response to low fertility. It should be mentioned that the DB data for National Fertility Survey have some limitations and hence had better be used for time-series analyses on changes in fertility and marriage behaviors. The data for the National Fertility Survey, which will be taken in the future, need to be continuously stored into the DB.