A Projection of Migration Flows after South-North Korea Integration and Policy Measures

Abstract

- 북한의 인구이동 및 도시발전의 역사와 근황을 파악하고자 북한 인구이동의 배경이 될 수 있는 시장의 발전과 북한 당국의 도시발전 전략을 분석하고, 북한의 1993년과 2008년의 인구센서스 자료에 대한 인구학적 분석을 실시 - 남북한 통일 시 발생될 수 있는 인구이동 현상을 예측하기 위하여 독일의 통일과정에서 나타난 인구이동 현상과 그로 인한 사회적 파급효과들을 분석 - 남북한 통합 및 북한의 체제전환 과정에서 발생할 수 있는 인구이동의 경향과 발생가능한 문제들을 예측하고, 이에 대응하기 위한 정책과제들을 제시

The main purposes of this study are to project migration flows of North Korean population after South-North Korea Integration or system transition of North Korea, and to provide policy recommendations to mitigate the negative effects of the migration. For the purposes, this study examines migration environments including development of market, urban development policy in North Korea, and analyzes current migration patterns taking particular focuses on migration between urban and rural areas. And, this study also explores the migration patterns and the social and demographic impacts after the reunification of East and West Germany, which can be important evidences to forecast migration pattern in the Korea peninsular in the future. This study shows that rural population in North Korea is abnormally large reaching about 40% of the total population, and mega-cities development has been controlled by North Korean development principle of 'regional self-reliance system'. The urban development strategy generated the serious regional disparity and the less developed industrial integration at national level. And, the case study on Germany presents that the mass migration flow produced various socioeconomic and demographic problems particularly in former East German areas. However, some of the problems has been normalized as the social integration and stabilization progresses. This study demonstrates that main policy issues on migration after South-North Integration or system transition of North Korea will be primarily focusing on reurbanization which means the rearrangement of population and industry in North Korean area. This study suggests various policy recommendations for the stable reurbanization.