Regional Population Distribution and its Policy Recommendations according to Low Fertility and Aging

Abstract

South Korea currently faces the problem related to aging population and low fertility. Aging population partly comes from the low fertility rate, but is mainly due to the rise of average life expectancy. To counteract that issue, it seems to need the more accurate forecasts of regional population size and structure but only a few studies have been concerned on that point in South Korea. Also, the causes of changes in the regional age structure have not yet been sufficiently analyzed. This study is investigating the changes of regional population distribution and pondering the causes. The following are among our key findings. Before the mid-2000s aged dependency and aged-child ratios had diverged between the Eup(邑)-myeon(面)-dong(洞)-districts but the trends of inequality indices for aged dependency and aged-child ratios become similar. The dwindling difference of population structure between Si(市)-districts and Gun(郡)-districts is a primary cause for the decline of inequality indices during the 2000s. The inequality indices for regional population structure and the average number of people per household are falling at the same time. We are expecting our research to help policy makers build up optimized plans for each community.