A Study on The Effect of Late Marriage on Low Fertility in Korea

Abstract

◈ ‘만혼’ 정의 - ‘만혼’이라는 용어가 많이 쓰이고 있지만 합의된 정의가 없음. - 따라서 본 연구는 의식 조사를 통해 ‘만혼’을 정의하기로 함. ◈ 경제학적 관점에서 만혼화 원인 분석 - 노동시장에 대한 기회비용 - 부모에 대한 경제적 의존도와 결혼행태 - 사회규범 변화 - 소득과 결혼행태 ◈ 만혼화 원인 분석 후 만혼화가 출산율에 미치는 영향 규명

The total fertility rate in Korea fell from the replacement level of 2.1 children per women in 1984 to 1.22 in 2010. This rapid fertility transition reflected changing economic and social circumstances, marriage behaviour, and family life. In recent, young people are waiting later to marry, couples are having fewer children, and more married women are working in labour market. Lower marital fertility is related closely to later marriage and greater participation of married women in the labor force. In most countries, the effect of marriage delay on the fertility decline is largely being offset by increasing cohabitation. However, childbearing outside marriage in Korea is very low, constituting about 2.0% of births in 2009. Thus late marriage affects directly marital fertility in Korea. Education and economic status are also the important factors affecting both age at marriage and fertility. This study analyzes the trend toward late marriage and less marriage due to a confluence interrelated economic, social and cultural changes including remarkable educational gains by women in Korea. The first part of the study reviews the trend of marriage and childbearing, and analyzes interrelationship between marriage and employment using bivariate logistic regression analysis. The second part estimates the determinants of first marriage age. The third part analyzes the effect of late marriage on the birth of her first baby and birth interval using cox proportional hazard model. The fourth part analyzes relationship between women's late marriage and health-related outcomes and the last part summarizes the results of this study and suggests policy implications.