Evaluation on Effectiveness of Policies in Response to Low Fertility

Abstract

◈ 이론적 고찰을 통한 연구틀 설정 ◈ 저출산정책의 현황 분석 ◈ 주요 저출산정책의 효과성에 관한 분석 실시 ◈ 향후 저출산정책의 실효성 제고를 위한 정책방안 제안

Korea has experienced a sharp demographic transition from high fertility at 6.0 to low fertility at around 1.1 in half a century. In response to such a low fertility phenomenon, Korean Government has implemented the First Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aged Society (2006~2010) since 2006. This study aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of several major policies designed to increase fertility level. The policies under evaluation included subsidy for daycare cost, tax benefits, supply of public daycare facilities, supply of workplace daycare facilities, diversification of daycare services, maternity leave, and childcare leave. Three methods were applied for evaluation to increase objectiveness and reliance of the results; they included time-series regression model, cross-sectional regression model, and micro-data regression model. For micro-data analysis, ‘2009 National Survey on Marriage and Fertility’ results were used. The results from the models could be summarized as follows; Firstly, the subsidy for daycare cost appeared to have significant impact on TFR and the expected number of children, although no statistical significance was found on regional difference in TFR which might be due to the application of same criteria over all regions. Secondly, tax benefits appeared to have an effect for increasing the expected number of children, specifically with stronger statistical significance on the elderly group of women. Thirdly, the supply of public daycare facilities, the supply of workplace daycare facilities appeared, and the diversification of daycare services appeared to have no impact on fertility with statistical significance; the supply of those daycare facilities or services had been too much restricted and/or private daycare facilities could compensate for such restrictions. Finally, the maternity leave showed no directed effect on fertility level; its effect could appear indirectly through protecting fecundibility. It should be mentioned that the evaluation of policies in relation to low fertility continue with longer time framework and more sufficient and relevant data.