A Study on Changes in Marriage Patterns and Their Impact on the Fertility

Abstract

◈ 이론적 고찰을 통한 연구틀 설정 ◈ 결혼행태 다양화와 추이 분석 ◈ 결혼행태 변화가 출산율 추이에 미치는 영향력 분석 ◈ 결혼 및 출산 관련 정책에서의 함의 도출

- This study analyzes the state of marriage and the fertility rate, measures correlation between changes in marriage and the fertility, and based on the analysis, suggests policy measures to raise the number of births. This study complements the limitations of total fertility rate which is regarded as one of the most important indicators in childbirth promotion policy on a macro level but fails to fully reflect the reality. The study also examines the impact of marriages which are directly associated with the fertility but did not receive much attention before. We measured the average number of children that would be born to a married woman using the total fertility rate adjusted for marital status, thus separating the impact of the unmarried population from the total fertility rate. - On a micro level, we analyzed the unmarried population's intention to get married, using the data from the "National Survey of Marriage and Fertility Trends 2009" by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, and also analyzed married women's current fertility and expected fertility. Thus, we were able to measure the impact of changes in marriage such as marriage age and types of marriage. We found that among many reasons for the low fertility, changes in marriage such as increased age at first marriage and changes in divorce are the main causes. Increased age at first marriage results in delayed childbirth, making the prospect of effecting a rapid increase of the fertility more elusive. The study shows that both a marriage promotion policy that can lower the age at first marriage and a childbirth promotion policy targeting married women are needed to raise the fertility rate. - To solve the problem of the low fertility rate, we need to provide incentive to married women to have at least 3 children, which seems very difficult to realize given the circumstances. Thus, it is important to lower the rate of the unmarried by a marriage promotion policy. It is also important to have a policy that lowers the costs of child care and education, enhances government's financial support for child care, and promotes a marriage and childbearing friendly society where mothers are not discouraged to return to their old jobs.