Population Changes and Social Risks

Abstract

Population changes are a global phenomenon, a concern hardly unique to Korea. What is particularly concerning for Korea, however, is that since the beginning of the 2020s, its population has been declining. The family structure is changing, with household sizes becoming smaller and the percentage of one-person households increasing. In addition, the issue of migrants emerges as warranting attention in Korea, where, with migration flows into it having become substantial since the 2000s, considerations are needed as to whether migrants experience greater disorientation from sociocultural unfamiliarity than in other countries. A population can be studied in a static frame, but it is a dynamic system, ever changing, constantly undergoing births, deaths, and migration. Because population changes are both the product and the cause of social phenomena, it is very difficult to establish causal pathways between population shifts and social risks. Nor is the way a given population change impacts society uniform across different social conditions. However, if past studies are any guide, ongoing population changes are likely to slow Korea’s economic growth and increase social costs. To what extent migrant populations will mitigate this impact remains uncertain. Population changes overall are going in the direction of placing considerable financial pressure on the Korean welfare state. The fiscal impact of population changes, if not kept monitored and controlled early, could raise concerns about the sustainability of the welfare state, potentially hindering necessary welfare expansion. Efforts must begin proactively toward restructuring welfare expenditures.