Development of a Household Projection Model

Abstract

Household projection is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of health and welfare policies in response to rapid demographic changes. This study focuses on developing a household projection model that strengthens linkages with existing population projections and can be directly applied to policy research. The study constructed a modularized household projection model based on marital status-specific headship rates, enabling various policy scenario analyses. Through systematic review of methodology and model validation, it establishes a foundation for advancing toward dynamic household projections.