Research on social security financial long-term forecast model: Focusing on the social insurance field

Abstract

Concerns about social security finances are increasing ahead of the entry into a super-aging society in 2025. In this report, we conducted an estimation model study to monitor the long-term financial risk of social security targeting the three major social insurances: national pension, health insurance, and long-term care insurance for the elderly. The estimation model is based on statistics published by Statistics Korea, National Pension Service, and National Health Insurance Service. By applying this, the National Pension Service performed financial projections for the old-age pension from 2023 to 2090, and short-term insurance, health insurance and long-term care insurance for the elderly, performed financial projections from 2023 to 2032.