Pension Reforms
; Dynamic Microsimulation Model
; Policy Evaluation
Publication Year
2023
Publisher
Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs
Abstract
This study aims to develop KIHASA SIM, a dynamic microsimulation model, to assess the effects of public pension reforms. To enhance relevance and accuracy, KIHASA SIM is constructed by extensively updating and reorganizing DOSA, a microsimulation model developed by the Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs in 2016. It uses a 2% sample (998,459 individuals) from the 2015 Population and Housing Census data as its base set. The model integrates a wide array of micro-data from Korea to simulate key life events, including childbirth, marriage, divorce, education, earnings, public pension, asset accumulation, and mortality. We verify the simulation results by comparing them with the income distribution and economic activity transition probabilities observed in the Korean Labor Panel data, confirming their similarity. We also confirm that this model's long-term financial outlook is similar to the results of the National Pension Service's 5th actuarial forecast. These results underscore the practical utility of KIHASA SIM, demonstrating its capability to provide insightful analyses of the nuanced effects of pension reforms. This validated model is essential for policymakers and researchers in developing informed, long-term management strategies for public pensions.
Table Of Contents
Abstract 1 요약 3
제1장 서론 5 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 7 제2절 연구의 내용 및 방법 10
제2장 마이크로시뮬레이션 모형의 개념과 활용 13 제1절 개념과 발전 과정 15 제2절 기술적 특징과 분류 18 제3절 개발 및 활용 사례 27
제3장 KIHASA SIM의 구조와 활용 자료 35 제1절 모형의 개요 37 제2절 모형의 구조 40 제3절 활용 자료 46
제4장 기초 자료 구축 53 제1절 기초 자료 구축 55 제2절 인구 및 가구 보정 61 제3절 소득 분포 보정 66 제4절 국민연금 가입 및 수급 정보 보정 71