Realization of fertility intention and fertility forecasting

Abstract

This study analyzed a series of processes that lead to childbirth from childbirth desire and intentions and examined diverse factors affecting them. As a result of the estimation of the TPB model and the TDIB model, it was found that the subjective norm of childbirth had the greatest influence on the childbirth desire and pregnancy behavior, the influence of the positive or negative attitude toward the child was relatively small, and the perceived control had the smallest effects. Economically active women are less likely to realize childbirth than inactive women, but they have a higher tendency to postpone childbirth rather than give up. The low-educated, middle-low and middle-class groups had greater difficulty in realizing the planned birth and were more likely to give up. The effective expected number of children measured through the fertility survey was found to be very close to the completed fertility rate estimated from the National Statistical Office’s future population estimates. It implies that the expected number of children could be usefully used in estimating the fertility rate in the era of very low birth rates.