Development of Social Insurance Policy Experiment Model using Dynamic Programming

Abstract

동태행위모형을 통해 국민연금 보험료 인상과 건강보험 보장성 강화가 중고령층의 저축과 근로활동 참가에 미치는 효과를 분석해 보았다. 국민연금 보험료의 인상은 저축 수준과 근로활동 참가율을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났고, 건강보험의 보장성 강화는 저축과 근로활동 참가율이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다.

It is the second year work of extending and modifying RAND Corporations’s prototype dynamic behavioral model that was developed in collaboration with KIHASA in 2015-2016. In 2017, for the first attempt to modifying a prototype model, we transformed couple’s decision-making model the male-head of household model to account for male-oriented labor market environment of Korea. We also extended a model by adding public health insurance system to the budget constraint. In 2018, we modeled both male-head of household model and couple’s decision-making model that include public health insurance system in budget constraint. The contribution of this year’s research is in improving reliability of the model in terms of parameter estimation and policy experiment. We tested reliability of parameter estimation by comparing six different model settings that are derived from different assumptions in asset discretization. We noticed that parameter estimations are stable over six different model settings, and concluded that an extension of model produces reliable result. We also improved model fitting in asset by fixing two parameters in bequest, and should be able to interpret effects of different policy shocks. Finally, we could interpret differences in response of representative household to different policy shocks in relation to difference in fourteen parameters that shape preference of household.