Long-term Demographic Change and Financial Projection of Social Insurances

Abstract

인구구조 변화와 밀접한 관련이 있는 사회보험 장기재정전망을 통해 저출산과 인구고령화 및 저성장 경제 여건하에서 국민연금과 기초연금 등의 재정 방식과 제도 운영상의 특성을 반영할 수 있는 재정추계 방법을 살펴보고 있다. 공적연금 재정에 대한 장기 전망 결과, 현행 제도를 그대로 유지할 경우 향후 연금제도 성숙 등으로 인해 연금 지출 규모가 꾸준히 증가하는 것으로 나타난다. 특히 국민연금제도가 성숙된 이후에는 노후소득보장에 해당하는 연금 지출이 빠르게 증가할 것으로 전망되는데, 우리나라의 현재 연금제도의 특성상 당분간 지출 규모의 증가는 불가피한 측면이 있으나, 공적연금제도가 보다 안정적으로 운영되기 위해서는 재정 상태에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요하다.

Korea has seen in recent years the maturity of its public pension plans grow and its childcare programs and basic old-age pension expand in coverage. No consensus has been reached in Korea with respect to how to fund the projected increases in social insurance expenditure, thus analyses of the raised public burden resulting from these projected increases are limited. It will be necessary in the future to determine more acceptable levels of increase in the public burden based on a more comprehensive fiscal evaluation of the levels of social insurance expenditure and public burden, and an effective analysis of various measures for increasing revenue, including increases in social insurance contribution and improved national fiscal management. Reviews and discussions on how to ensure the sustainability of the social insurance and improve related systems and institutions based on budget projection results are needed in Korea. The social insurance projections in this study were made from a neutral perspective, intent on analyzing likely fiscal burdens attendant upon the declining birth rate, the aging population, and the consolidation of the pension system. The findings of this study will provide important basic data for making structural and parametric improvements to NHI and other social programs. Insofar as the current social insurance structure is retained in Korea, the amount of expenditure for old age benefits will increase dramatically due to the aging population and the consolidation of public pension programs. In order to ensure the fiscal sustainability of social insurance and in consideration of public burden, it is crucial to launch a public discourse on social insurances and their future, informed by reliable and official governmental data. Policymakers in Korea will need to consider a broad array of factors in designing future social insurances, particularly taking into account the rapidly aging population and the acceptability of public burden increases.