Aging Society and Economic Impact of Increasing Social Welfare Finance(3rd Year)

Abstract

본 보고서는 동태행위모형을 이용하여 국민연금제도와 건강보험제도의 정책변화가 개인과 가구의 은퇴시점과 저축수준에 미치는 영향을 분석한 것이다. 우리나라의 사회보장재정규모가 급증하는 추세에 있기 때문에 부담과 급여 모든 측면에서 정부와 가구 모두에게 미치는 파급효과는 커져갈 수밖에 없다. 따라서 보다 엄밀한 모형개발을 통해 정책변화에 대한 반응을 미리 예측해 보는 것이 중요하다고 본다. 분석결과 국민연금제도의 보험료인상은 저축의 감소로 이어지고 수급시점연장은 그 반대의 현상이 발생하는 것으로 분석되었다. 반면 건강보험의 보장성강화를 통한 의료비감소는 저축의 증가와 노동공급이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 물론 변화의 절대적인 수준은 크지 않지만 정책에 대한 반응의 방향성을 확인한 것에 의미를 부여할 수 있다고 본다. 앞으로 모형을 보다 정교하게 하는 후속 연구를 통해 정교한 정책분석이 가능한 모형으로 발전시켜나가는 과제를 갖고 있다는 것도 밝히는 바 이다.

It is the third year work of three-year project of modeling effect of social security finance to the household decision making in retirement timing and saving. We extended and modified original model developed by RAND Corporation for KIHASA to account for male-oriented labor market environment of Korea. Third year work has focus on developing dynamic behavior model that is more relevant to Korean policy environment by considering both national pension plan and public health insurance system. Major modification from original RAND model is to set age ceiling for female spouse’s labor force participation. Another change was made to include health expenditure and health insurance premium contribution in budget constraint to test effect of change in policy. Diverse scenarios of policy experiment were tested with newly estimated parameters of utility function. Results from policy experiment show that Korean baby-boomers reduce saving and labor force participation as contribution rate for national pension system increases by 2% or 3% point. Similar experiments were made to public health insurance system by increasing contribution rateby 5% and reducing personal medical expenditure by 11.6%. By the nature of generational transfer in public health insurance system, baby-boomers and the elderly population benefit more than contribution. Increase in contribution of health insurance has very limited effect on budget constraint of baby-boomers and the elderly household, but the benefit of reduction in health expenditure due to coverage expansion motivate baby-boomers and the elderly to save more. We also tested policy mix of increasing pension contribution by 2% point and reducing medical expenditure by 11.6%. We noticed that effect of positive saving from reduction of individual health expenditure is diminished when pension contribution effect is mixed with.