Longitudinal Analysis on Success Factors of Smoking Cessation Using Panel Data

Abstract

Objectives: This study has longitudinally analyzed male smokers in order to find out the trend rate of re-smoking after smoking cessation. Methods: The study was conducted with 800 male smokers who were provided with smoking cessation services for 3 years at public health centers from July 16, 2005 to July 15, 2008. Results: The results can be summarized as follows: First, the success rate of smoking cessation for at least 6 months during 3-year period was 54.4%. The failure rate of smoking cessation at the second year was 47.5% and the third 27.2%, which indicates that the failure rate diminishes as the period of smoking cessation extends. Second, the success rate of smoking cessation at the first trial was 35.0%, the second 24.3%, and the third 16.4%. The success rate diminished as the number of trial increased. Third, the continuation rate of smoking cessation for a year was 18.3%, for 2 years 13.4%. For the success group, the continuation rate of smoking cessation for a year was 52.5%, for 2 years 38.2%. For the failure group, the rate for a year was 21.5%. Fourth, in this longitudinal analysis, the most crucial variables that affect the success rate of smoking cessation are total number of consultation and the past experience of successful smoking cessation. Conclusion: This study shows that success of smoking cessation and the continuance of smoking cessation are both difficult, and that the past experience of smoking cessation plays an important role determining the present success of smoking cessation and continuance of smoking cessation. Thus, it is necessary to divide people into success group and failure group based on the results of the past experience of smoking cessation when they consult at smoking cessation clinics at public health centers. Further, in order to increase the continuation rate of smoking cessation, this study suggests that we need to consider ways to take care of those who successfully abstained from smoking for 6 months.