Measurement of Effect of Employment on Transition of Marital State: Using Transition Matrix of a Markov Chain

Abstract

Abstract. The main purpose of this paper is to calculate the transition probabilities between marital states by employment status, using the transition matrix of a Markov chain. The data from the Resident Registration System, Population Census, and Vital Registration System are analyzed as of 2010. The main findings of this study are summarized as follows; the employed show high transition probabilities from the 'single' state to the 'married' state, from the 'widowed' state to the 'married' state, and from the 'divorced' state to the 'married' state, in comparison with the not-working population including the unemployment and the economically inactive population. It may imply that increasing job opportunities and strengthening job security have positive effects on family formation and family solidarity, which may play an important role in recovering the fertility level.