Impact Evaluation of Korea's Pro-natal Policies

Abstract

한국 사회는 전 세계에서 그 유례를 찾아볼 수 없을 정도의 낮은 출산율을 장기간 경험하고 있다. 이에 따라 정부에서는 2006년 부터 본격적으로 저출산?고령사회기본계획을 실시하고 있다. 저출산 정책의 경우 그 효과가 장기간에 걸쳐 발생함을 고려할 때 지난 10년간의 노력으로 출산율의 본격적인 회복을 기대하기는 어려운 것이 사실이나, 저출산 대책에 투입되는 예산 규모나 정책의 중요성을 고려할 때 저출산 대책의 효과성 평가는 이루어질 필요가 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 가장 최근의 자료 및 발전된 방법론을 이용하여 한국 사회 저출산 대책의 효과를 평가하고자 하였다.

This study examines the effect of Korean government programs on total fertility rate (TFR) in Korea. There are several innovations in this paper, such as decomposition of fertility, panel fixed- effects model, and simultaneous consideration of child institutional- care subsidy program and child home-care allowance program, which have little been addressed in the previous literature. The results suggest that TFR over the last decade has stagnated due to rapid decline in the nuptiality rate although the marital fertility has been increased. The results of panel fixed-effects model also imply that marriage decisions of single persons and fertility decisions of married couples are determined by different factors. Contrary to previous studies, the results also show a positive effect of child institutional-care subsidy on TFR. The results are robust even when we consider potential substitution effects. However, the results also suggest that the efficiency of the subsidy program has been decreased. Based on all these results, we conclude that it is premature to conclude that the government’s efforts to promote fertility was a total failure, as widely believed.