Health Risk Appraisal Model for Assessing Hypertension by Changing Health Risk Factors

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a health risk appraisal model for predicting hypertension incidence by using measures based on multi-year (2008-2012) data of individuals who underwent a general health examination. A total of 11,632 subjects with a normal blood pressure in 2010 were enrolled to observe changes of health behavior, anthropometric measurements, and laboratory results from 2009 through 2010 affecting hypertension incidence in 2011-2012. A hypertension risk score model was developed using logistic regression. Also, the C-statistic (95% confidence interval) was used to develop the best-fitting prediction model. Hypertension risk model consisted of age, family history of hypertension, and changes in drinking behavior, visceral obesity, blood pressure level, and triglycerides level (C-statistic=0.81[male=0.78, female=0.87]). The incidence rate of hypertension was positively associated with change (Δ) in blood pressure level, especially sustaining level of prehypertension (odds ratio [95% CI], 16.52 [9.36-29.16]), independently from other risk factors. The health risk model will be helpful for clinicians and policy makers as well as individuals to prevent hypertension.