○ 평균수명의 연장에 따라 길어진 노년기 삶의 변화가 클 것으로 전망되므로 인구동태(출산율, 사망률 등) 변화에 따라 고령자 규모 및 연령구조 등을 파악하여 사회 각 부문별 중장기적인 정책적 대응이 필요함. ○ 평균수명 100세를 대비하여 고연령층의 규모 증가에 따라 고연령층(100세 포함)의 삶의 변화에 대한 구체적인 전망 및 그에 따른 사회적 대응 방안을 도출함
ㅁMain Contents ○ Population projections and estimations based on different scenarios with extended life span ○ Mid- and long-term financial projections for raising the safety and coverage of the National Health Insurance ○ Financial analyses and responses for the National Pension Plan based on different population scenarios ○ Financial projections for the sustainability of the Long-term Care Insurance ○ Food and nutrition policy responses for healthy old age ○ Envisaging the life of the elderly in the age of extended life span.
ㅁPolicy Responses ○ Population projections and estimations － Projecting and estimating populations of 2010~2100 based on four scenarios - with different fertilities, force of mortality - using the cohort component method. － Total population is projected to decrease to 42.99 million ~ 48.03 million by 2050, to 17.82 million ~ 3,006 million by 2100, based on different scenarios. － The life expectancy is projected to be 91.78 for men and 96.07 for women in 2100. ○ The mid- and long-term financial projections for the National Health Insurance － Projections were made only about National Health Insurance, not about public health expenditures, using a projection method of the OECD(2006). － If the scenario 2 will be realized, whereby there will be no reduction in health expenditures and the residual growth rate will converge to 0% by 2050, the funds of the National Health Insurance will grow by an annual average of 9.98% until 2020. ○ Long-term financial projections for the National Pension Plan － With the National Pension Actuarial Valuation(2008) as an economic variable, financial estimations were made in the case of TFR being 1.28 and 1.70, and also for extended life span. － With extended life expectancy taken into consideration, it is projected that the support ratio will increase to 150.2% in 2100 from 11% in 2010, the pension fund will be completely depleted by 2056, and the total pension expenditure will be 11.7% of GDP in 2100. ○ Long-term Care Insurance － Population aging has a positive aspect of prolonging life attached with a negative impact on the economy. － The costs for the LTC insurance are projected to increase to 2.1% of GDP by 2050, increasing financial burden on the economy. ○ Analysis of the food consumption and morbidity of the elderly and recommended alternatives － The nutrition state of the elderly gets worse as the age increases with their diet consisting mainly of carbohydrate and fiber. － Life-style related chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia on the increase among the elderly ○ ○ Debates on the definition of old age and policy implications － Debates are on the rise about the age of 65 as entry into old age as defined in many laws － 68.3% of the population now see the age 70 as the entry into old age, and this perception is increasing.
ㅁContributons to Policy ○ Presented four scenarios based on basic policy-related data, including fertility, force of mortality ○ Financial estimations for the National Health Insurance, the National Pension Plan, and the Long-term Care Insurance in the age of population aging ○ Analysis of the elderly's food consumption and morbidity and the recommendation of a diet full of vegetables, fiber, protein and polysaccharide ○ Conducted a multi-faceted review on the elderly and made suggestions on improvement
Table Of Contents
요 약 5
제1장 서론 25 제1절 연구 필요성 및 배경 25 제2절 연구 목적 27 제3절 연구내용 28 제4절 연구방법 30
제2장 평균수명 연장에 따른 인구추계 35 제1절 인구추계 방법 및 가정 36 제2절 추계결과 45 제3절 추계 결과의 함의 56
제3장 100세 시대 대비 건강보험 재정전망 및 정책과제 61 제1절 건강보험 중장기 재정전망 61 제2절 정책과제 79
제4장 100세 시대 대비 국민연금 재정전망 및 정책과제 89 제1절 국민연금 재정분석 89 제2절 분석결과 및 정책과제 제안 101