Title: Developing Policies for Healthy Old Age in the Age of Centenarians

Title: Developing Policies for Healthy Old Age in the Age of Centenarians

정기혜; 신영석; 이삼식; 윤석명; 김진수; 정경희; 신화연; 박지은; 김경은

건강한 100세; 대응정책
Publication Year
Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs
○ 평균수명의 연장에 따라 길어진 노년기 삶의 변화가 클 것으로 전망되므로 인구동태(출산율, 사망률 등) 변화에 따라 고령자 규모 및 연령구조 등을 파악하여 사회 각 부문별 중장기적인 정책적 대응이 필요함.
○ 평균수명 100세를 대비하여 고연령층의 규모 증가에 따라 고연령층(100세 포함)의 삶의 변화에 대한 구체적인 전망 및 그에 따른 사회적 대응 방안을 도출함

ㅁMain Contents
○ Population projections and estimations based on different scenarios with extended life span
○ Mid- and long-term financial projections for raising the safety and coverage of the National Health Insurance
○ Financial analyses and responses for the National Pension Plan based on different population scenarios
○ Financial projections for the sustainability of the Long-term Care Insurance
○ Food and nutrition policy responses for healthy old age
○ Envisaging the life of the elderly in the age of extended life span.

ㅁPolicy Responses
○ Population projections and estimations
- Projecting and estimating populations of 2010~2100 based on four scenarios - with different fertilities, force of mortality - using the cohort component method.
- Total population is projected to decrease to 42.99 million ~ 48.03 million by 2050, to 17.82 million ~ 3,006 million by 2100, based on different scenarios.
- The life expectancy is projected to be 91.78 for men and 96.07 for women in 2100.
○ The mid- and long-term financial projections for the National Health Insurance
- Projections were made only about National Health Insurance, not about public health expenditures, using a projection method of the OECD(2006).
- If the scenario 2 will be realized, whereby there will be no reduction in health expenditures and the residual growth rate will converge to 0% by 2050, the funds of the National Health Insurance will grow by an annual average of 9.98% until 2020.
○ Long-term financial projections for the National Pension Plan
- With the National Pension Actuarial Valuation(2008) as an economic variable, financial estimations were made in the case of TFR being 1.28 and 1.70, and also for extended life span.
- With extended life expectancy taken into consideration, it is projected that the support ratio will increase to 150.2% in 2100 from 11% in 2010, the pension fund will be completely depleted by 2056, and the total pension expenditure will be 11.7% of GDP in 2100.
○ Long-term Care Insurance
- Population aging has a positive aspect of prolonging life attached with a negative impact on the economy.
- The costs for the LTC insurance are projected to increase to 2.1% of GDP by 2050, increasing financial burden on the economy.
○ Analysis of the food consumption and morbidity of the elderly and recommended alternatives
- The nutrition state of the elderly gets worse as the age increases with their diet consisting mainly of carbohydrate and fiber.
- Life-style related chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia on the increase among the elderly
○ ○ Debates on the definition of old age and policy implications
- Debates are on the rise about the age of 65 as entry into old age as defined in many laws
- 68.3% of the population now see the age 70 as the entry into old age, and this perception is increasing.

ㅁContributons to Policy
○ Presented four scenarios based on basic policy-related data, including fertility, force of mortality
○ Financial estimations for the National Health Insurance, the National Pension Plan, and the Long-term Care Insurance in the age of population aging
○ Analysis of the elderly's food consumption and morbidity and the recommendation of a diet full of vegetables, fiber, protein and polysaccharide
○ Conducted a multi-faceted review on the elderly and made suggestions on improvement
Table Of Contents
Abstract 1

요 약 5

제1장 서론 25
제1절 연구 필요성 및 배경 25
제2절 연구 목적 27
제3절 연구내용 28
제4절 연구방법 30

제2장 평균수명 연장에 따른 인구추계 35
제1절 인구추계 방법 및 가정 36
제2절 추계결과 45
제3절 추계 결과의 함의 56

제3장 100세 시대 대비 건강보험 재정전망 및 정책과제 61
제1절 건강보험 중장기 재정전망 61
제2절 정책과제 79

제4장 100세 시대 대비 국민연금 재정전망 및 정책과제 89
제1절 국민연금 재정분석 89
제2절 분석결과 및 정책과제 제안 101

제5장 노인장기요양보험 재정전망 및 정책과제 107
제1절 연구목적 107
제2절 추계의 기본 관점 108
제3절 연구방법 109
제4절 기초자료 112
제5절 추계결과 113
제6절 정책대안 115

제6장 100세 대비 노인층의 영양섭취 실태 및 정책과제 119
제1절 전 연령층의 영양섭취 특성 119
제2절 60대 이후 연령층의 영양섭취 특성 129
제3절 일본 현황 137
제4절 요약 및 시사점 141

제7장 노인의 연령기준 관련 논점과 정책적 함의 147
제1절 노화‧노인에 관한 이론적 검토 147
제2절 인구고령화 및 노인의 삶의 현황 150
제3절 한국인의 ‘노인’에 대한 인식 및 태도 156
제4절 우리나라의 법과 정책에 나타난 노인의 정의 158
제5절 노인 연령기준 관련 국제 동향 164
제6절 정책적 함의 168

참고문헌 173

부 록 181
부록 1. 주요 기초자료 181
Local ID
연구보고서 2011-54
KIHASA Research
Subject Classification
Health care > Health promotion
Population and family > Responses to population aging
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