인구고령화의 진전은 노년층에 대한 사회적 부양부담을 가중시키고, 세대 간 경제에 변화를 발생시킬 수 있다. 이러한 맥락에서 노년층을 위한 복지정책(공적이전)의 확대는 필연적으로 정부의 재정투입을 확대시키고, 생산가능인구의 조세부담을 증가시킬 수 있다. 공적이전의 규모 확대는 사적이전에도 영향을 미치므로 제도부문 전체를 고려하여 정책효과를 분석하는 것이 필요하다. 정부의 공적 개입으로 인해 사적 개입이 축소된다면 의도했던 정책의 전체효과는 반감될 수 있기 때문이다. 본 연구에서는 최근 노년층의 복지정책 확대에 따라 공적 및 사적이전이 노후소득에서 어떠한 역할을 하고 있으며, 공적이전의 확대가 사적이전의 규모를 변화시키는지 국민이전계정(National Transfer Accounts)의 추계자료를 이용하여 살펴보고자 한다. 공·사적이전의 관계는 향후 중장기 고령화 대응 정책 입안에 필요한 중요한 근거자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.
The purpose of this study is to identify changes of public- private transfer before and after 2008, when the senior welfare policy was expanded through the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) which can help understand intergenerational economy. For this, NTAs in 2006, 2009 and 2011 were estimated to check the trend of public and private transfer as a old-age support system. 17 countries of different population aging status were compared together to figure out the change of public-private transfer in Korea. As a result, public-private transfer of elderly group in Korea showed a certain pattern of change except 2009, when there was economic crisis. The share of public transfer in the retirement income was 38% in 2006, and it had steadily increased to 55% until 2011 while the share of private transfer remained in constant level of 19%. Therefore, the empirical evidence for the assumption that the increase of public transfer due to the expansion of senior welfare policy decreases private transfer was not found. In the international comparison, there is tendency of public transfer share increase within the retirement income, while private share remains almost the same. In summary, the government’s expansion of public finance investment for senior welfare increase in recent years did not decrease private transfer. It is assumed that even though the population aging keeps progressing in the future, the crowding- out relations between public and private transfer would not occur. Therefore, it is considered that the expansion of senior welfare policy increases quantitative scale of retirement income and upgrades elderly’s overall quality of life. However, if the support burden of working age groups increase due to the senior welfare policy expansion, it can downgrade the equality among generations, so the policy makers should have balanced view in the policy design and implementation phases.