여성근로자의 노동조건에 따른 출산수준 차이와 정책방안

제목
여성근로자의 노동조건에 따른 출산수준 차이와 정책방안
Effects of Female Employees’Working Conditions on Fertility and Policy Implications
저자

김현식; 김지연

키워드
여성근로자; 종사자 지위; 근로시간 형태; 임금; 출산위험(hazards); 차별출산력
발행연도
2012
발행기관
한국보건사회연구원
초록
경제활동에 참여하는 여성들이 직면하는 주요 노동조건에 초점을 맞추어 이러한 변수들이 자녀출산에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 파악
1) 여러 사회과학적 논리와 경험적 근거에 기반하여 여성근로자의 노동조건이 출산율에 미치는 영향에 관한 이론적 가설을 세움
2) 경험적 자료를 사용하여 이러한 가설을 검증. 경험적 자료로 한국노동패널을 사용하였으며 통계적 모형으로 콕스비례모형과 이산위험모형을 선택
3) 역인과관계(reverse causality)를 고려하여 출산월을 조작하는 모형을 추정하고 출산순위별 차이를 고려하여 출산순위에 따른 모형을 설계
4) 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 경험적 자료에 근거한 정책적 함의를 도출하고 제시

South Korea has been experiencing lowest-low fertilities for more than a decade since 2001 inclusive. With the enactment of Low Fertility and Aging Society Basic Act in 2005, a nation-wide effort has been invested to boost low fertilities up. Numerous scholars also endeavored to isolate various factors, such as family composition, household income, housing ownership, that are supposed to be responsible for low fertilities. Working conditions of female employees, however, have rarely been related to low fertilities. This report is a small step toward that direction.
We attempt to examine effects of female employees' working conditions on differential fertility. More specifically, we are interested in effects of 1) job status indexed by the dichotomy between transient or daily and permanent job, 2) types of working time operationalized by ① nonstandard working time, ② standard but non-overtime work, ③ standard but overtime work, and 3) monthly wage categorized by ① 0-999K (Korea Won, 1K is approximately 0.9 US $), ② 1000-1,999K, and ③ 2,000K or more.
We formulate multiple theoretical predictions on the relationships between aforementioned working conditions and fertility, based on neo-economic, sociological, and psychological theories that are contradictory and conflicting rather than consistent across those social theories. We develop not only theoretical predictions on average effects but effect heterogeneity by birth order and female's education focusing on sexual pleasure, learning effect and career seeking behaviors. To test those theories, we utilize Cox proportional hazards model and discrete survival model to fit the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study from 1998 to 2008.
For rigorous causal inference, we pay close attention to distinction between confounding and conditioning when it comes to determinations of cause and consequence in the relationship between types of working time and monthly wage. Reverse causality has taken such serious attention that we try three different lagging scenarios in birth month: no lag, five and eight month lag.
Analytical results indicate that job status is not a main factor that carves low fertility rates. Further analysis reveals that for the second child birth, college education turns the negative effect of transient or daily work (as opposed to permanent work) into positive, suggesting career seeking behaviors of women with higher education. On average, working time does not appear to make a distinguishable mark on low fertility. However, it turns out that college education tends to aggravate negative effect of standard but non-overtime work as compared to non-standard working time for the second childbirth, which again demonstrates differential behaviors of career seeking women. Finally, we report statistically significant average effect of monthly wage in the positive direction when we compare monthly wage of 2,000K or more to less than 1,000K.
These results strongly suggest that we should concentrate on improving working conditions of career seeking women to move out of the low fertility trap. For instance, we need to strike a balance between work and family for the career seeking women to feel willing to give a birth. Government policy should also focus on raising wage of female workers to a reasonable level. Otherwise, it will be very likely to live in a low fertility society in a foreseeable future.
목차
Abstract
요 약
제1장 서론
제2장 여성근로자의 근로실태
제1절 한국 여성의 경제활동 현황
제2절 취업 여성의 근로조건
제3장 인과분석(causal analysis)에 관한 논의
제1절 근로조건 변수들 사이의 관계
제2절 혼동변수
제3절 역인과관계(reverse causality)
제4장 방법론 및 자료
제1절 통계적 방법론
제2절 자료 및 변수의 조작
제3절 자료의 선별
제4절 질적 자료 수집
제5장 자료의 기술통계
제1절 변수의 분포
제2절 변수별 조출생율(crude birth rate)
제6장 여성의 종사상 지위와 출산력
제1절 이론적 배경
제2절 분석 결과
제3절 소결 및 토의
제7장 여성의 근무시간 형태와 출산력
제1절 이론적 배경
제2절 분석 결과
제3절 소결 및 토의
제8장 여성의 임금과 출산력
제1절 이론적 배경
제2절 분석 결과
제3절 소결 및 토의
제9장 결론 및 정책과제
제1절 요약
제2절 한계 및 향후 연구방향
제3절 정책적 제안
참고문헌
보고서 번호
연구보고서 2012-47-4
ISBN
978-89-8187-980-8
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