출산율 예측모형 개발
Development of Model Estimating Fertility Rate for Korea
이삼식; 최효진; 은기수; 장형수
출산율; 예측모형 개발
◈ 선행연구 고찰 ◈ 외국의 출산율 예측 시스템에 대한 사례 분석 ◈ 우리나라 출산율 추이와 주요 특징 분석 ◈ 개인적 및 사회경제적 변화에 따른 개인의 결혼 및 출산 민감도 분석 ◈ 출산율 예측모형 구축 ◈ 출산율 예측 시뮬레이션 및 모형의 적합도 검사
This study aimed at developing a model for estimating fertility rates for Korea under some conditions. The model is expected to provide the basic information for establishing and evaluating the polices in prompt and adequate response to low fertility and population ageing. The model was established on the basis of experiences by some OECD countries in Europe, having experienced the fertility increase trend and being economically well-developed, because Korea has never experienced the steady increase in fertility rate since 1960. This study collected about 20 years' time series data for each of selected countries and applied to the regression model, which is called a 'panel analysis' to take into considerations both cross-sectional and longitudinal aspects of fertility change simultaneously. The demographic and socio-economic variables to be included in the model, were explored through reviewing the results of previous studies and analyzing on determinants of fertility transition in recent years in the Korean context. They include marriage rate, mean age at first childbirth, infant morality rate, ratio of births out of marriage, female labor force participation rate, per capita GNI, ratio of female to male enrolled at university, GDI(gender-related development index), GEM(gender empowerment measure), ratio of health expenditure to GDP, and ratio of family expenditure to GDP. Simulation of the model for Korea and some panel countries showed a very small difference, less than 0.1, between the estimated rate and the observed rate for each year during 2005~2010. Thus, the model, as established in this study, is evaluated as accurate or well-fitted to a considerable extent.