◈ 일반회계예산이 투입되는 사회복지사업의 지출구조분석 ◈ 사회복지 부문별 중장기 발전방안에 따른 소요재정의 인상요인분석 ◈ 장래인구추계에 의한 부문별 대상자수의 변화 추계 ◈ 제도변화와 사회환경 변화에 따른 소요재정민감도 분석
Social Expenditure of Korea is expected to increase very rapidly due to increasing social needs and aging population. Currently, the ratio of social expenditure to GDP is around 8%, however, this ratio will increase dramatically to more than 20% in year 2040. Hence, this study has formulated the methodology o forecasting the social expenditure of Korea to produce generally acceptable long-term projection figures. This study also looked into the nature of increase in expenditure through examining each major components of social expenditure to relate them with social and economic variables. The forecasting results show that main cause of dramatic increase in social expenditure is explained by maturing social insurance systems and mandatory expenditure related to population aging. It implies that the most urgent measure to be implemented to balance the finance of social accounts is to increase contribution rate of social insurance.