◈ Becker의 출산 행태 관련 경제학적 이론 및 계량 모형고찰 ◈ 계량 모형을 이용하여 자녀 가치와 출산 행태 관계 분석 ◈ 분석 결과에 따른 출산률 제고 정책 방향 제시
It is widely and explicitly known that increased lifespan and birthrate decline are the two causes of an aging population, and how an increase in life expectancy may affect fertility rate has become a question of growing interest. This research reviewed several existing economic theories―the human capital theory, the life-cycle saving theory, and the wealth flows theory, among them―and explored the relationship between the value of children, fertility, and life expectancy. Korea's lowest-low fertility situation was explained to some extent by the wealth flows theory. Also, using the World Bank's cross-national data of 194 countries, this study conducted linear regression analysis and path analysis to empirically look into the relationship between the factors of human capital investment, fertility, and life expectancy. Such a human capital investment indicator as secondary school enrollment rate for the previous generation was found to have a positive effect on the current generation's human capital investment, which supported the human capital theory. The path analysis results showed that average life span had a statistically significant, positive effect on school enrollment rate and gross savings rate. School enrollment rate was found to negatively affect fertility, while gross savings rate did not have a statistically significant effect. In addition to the cross-country data analysis, a telephone survey of 800 randomly selected married adults was conducted to examine the influence of increased life expectancy on the attitude toward saving, having children, and investing in human capital. The survey revealed that as life expectancy increased, people were more likely to invest in human capital and increase savings for future. The findings in this study imply that increases in life expectancy induce investments in education and reduce fertility rate. The strengthened norm of investment in education generally makes parents hesitant about having more children than they believe their resources can support. Parents have to choose between the quantify and quality of their offspring. To reverse the trend of low fertility would require policy measures to help reconceptualize the value of children and to reduce family expenditure on children's education.
목차
제1장 서 론 제1절 연구배경 및 목적 제2절 연구내용 및 방법
제2장 출산관련 이론 고찰 제1절 생명사 이론(Life History Theory)과 출산율 제2절 인적자본이론과 저출산 제3절 생애주기이론(Life-cycle Model)과 저출산 제4절 세대 간 부의 이동 이론과 저출산 제5절 인구변천과정에서 사망과 출산
제3장 한국의 저출산 현상 고찰 제1절 세대 간 부의 이동과 저출산 제2절 평균수명 증가와 출산율 제3절 시사점
제4장 평균수명과 자녀가치, 출산율 관계 실증분석 제1절 평균수명과 출산율 관계 분석 제2절 자녀에 대한 가치관 분석
