생애주기변화와 출산행태 간의 상관성에 관한 연구: 교육, 경제활동 및 결혼을 중심으로
Study on Relationship between Change in Life Course and Fertility Behavior
◈ 이론적 고찰을 통한 연구틀 설정 ◈ 출산관련 가족주기 및 생애주기의 개념화 ◈ 가족주기 및 생애주기별 변화가 결혼 및 출산에 미치는 영향력 분석 ◈ 가족주기(생애주기) 변화와 출산율간 상관성의 정책적 함의 도출
The policies in response to low fertility have been focused on subsidy for childcare costs and supply for daycare facilities and services since explorations of causes of low fertility has been restricted to micro events which the women went through during childbirth and childrearing. Therefore, this study aimed at identifying the macro events or mechanism which have caused low fertility in the society, mainly focusing on life courses of education, economical activity, and marriage. The data used for the study included Population Censuses, Vital Statistics, and National Survey on Dynamics of Marriage and Fertility. The methods applied to the study were Parity Progression Ratio(PPR), mean age at first marriage, mean ages at births, regression, and logistics model. The main findings can be summarized are as follows; Firstly, there have been increases in education level and economically active participation among women in childbearing ages. The major age group experiencing cessation of job career has shifted from 25~29 age group to 30~34 age group along with increase in age at first marriage. Secondly, postponement of first marriage has been dominant among the women at ages of 25~34, characteristic of higher educational level and economically active participation. Thirdly, postponement of first marriage tends to delay the timing of childbirth and hence frequencies of childbirths. The PPR from 2nd to 3rd order of birth has rapidly declined and the PPR from 1st to 2nd order of birth has also declined to around 80 percent, implying that families with one child or two children become universal. It is also notable that in recent cohorts PPR from zero to first order of birth decreases, specifically among women with higher education level and in economic activity. Fourthly, women with higher educational level tend to work after finishing education, since ages of last education and first work are very high. Therefore, timing of first marriage and childbirth were more delayed for women with higher educational level and/or in economic activity. Lastly, an individual fertility level was decided through interactions of education, economical activity and marriage in a continuous life course. Taking into consideration those results, the policies to smoothly connect life courses of education, work, marriage and childbirth should be emphasized to effectively respond to low fertility.