미래사회 변동이 사회복지 영역에 미치는 영향과 변화 예측 연구: 영향 변수 도출과 시나리오 작성을 중심으로

Abstract

이 연구는 사회복지 분야를 둘러싼 환경을 중심으로 미래사회 변화를 예측하고, 예측된 미래사회 변동이 사회복지 영역 및 복지제도에 미치는 영향을 식별하고 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이 연구에서는 미래전략에 대한 체계적 예측을 위해 대상 범주와 시간적 범위를 향후 약 10년(2022~2032)의 기간 동안 국내에서 발생 가능할 만한 요소로 구체적으로 설정하고, 미래연구 방법론의 활용과 변화 예측을 위한 과학적 기법(STEEP 분류체계, 델파이 조사, 시나리오 플래닝)들을 활용하여 미래 환경 변화가 사회복지 영역에 미치는 영향을 네 가지 시나리오 작성을 통해 구체적으로 제시하고자 하였다.

In the aftermath of the outbreak and spread of COVID-19, countries around the world are experiencing collapse of medical protection systems and increment of social risks. Under this situation, predicting future changes becomes increasingly crucial for the public policy makers and the state administrations. The purpose of this study is to predict the future changes focused on the social welfare, and to identify and analyze the impact of such changes on the social welfare and policy. This study comprises three analyses: 1) Prediction of changes in the future social welfare environment; 2) Extracting the two factors of “conflict” and “gap” introducing uncertainty in the future changes in order to outline scenarios by presenting a two-by- two matrix; 3) The impact of future changes on the social welfare. For the study, STEEP(Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political) framework was used to predict the future changes in each area, and Delphi surveys were conducted three times involving 38 expert panels. And, based on the Delphi survey results, close examinations were conducted of the driving force and the development patterns of the future changes according to the four scenarios. In this study, future changes in the environment affecting the social welfare were analyzed by classifying them as social, technological, economic, environmental, and political sectors. Considering the relatively high priority of the policy response to the events over the next 10 years, the principal tasks of social welfare policy are presented as follows: First, policy efforts are needed to address the demographic changes. Second, the income maintenance systems are needed to strengthen the income redistribution function. Third, efforts are needed in response to the increasing social conflicts. Fourth, the public health care system must be dramatically expanded in response to the events such as climate changes, environmental pollution, and pandemic outbreaks. Fifth, in addition to the gap between classes, the response to the gap between regions will emerge as a key task of social welfare policy.