2021년 인구변동 모니터링과 정책과제: 지역 인구 감소를 중심으로

Abstract

지역 인구 감소에 보다 효과적으로 대응하기 위한 정책을 수립, 추진 하기 위해서 현재의 지역 인구 변동 상황을 보다 심층적으로 파악할 필요가 있다. 또한 보다 실효성 있는 지역 인구변동 모니터링을 추진하기 위해서 요구되는 이슈와 정책 과제를 적기에 파악하여 제시할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 현 시점에서의 지역 인구 감소 특성을 보다 효과적으로 포착할 수 있는 관련 지표 생산 및 관리의 필요성과 더불어, 현재 나타나고 있는 인구 변동에 대하여 보다 정교한 기초 및 심층 자료를 제공하는 동시에 관련 정책 과제를 제시하고 있다.

Korea's population dynamics are characterized by drastic and rapid. Therefore, it is necessary to consider in-depth ways to more effectively monitor these population dynamics. As for the regional population, not only natural changes but also social changes caused by population movements between regions are aggravated, and the characteristics of population change are showing more clear differences between regions. So, policy response is required as the crisis pattern in regions where the population is experiencing a significant decline is heightened, and the gap between regions is likely to deepen further. This study thus investigates the demographic characteristics of localities with population declines, and analyzes fertility, mobility of these localities and distributions of social inequalities of these localities. Key results were drawn in each of the four categories, which are as follows. Firstly, The results of analysis of demographic changes in countries with declining populations in the OECD suggest the need to consider social and natural changes in the population in a complex way when observing changes in the size of Korea's population. Also, the difference between the total fertility rate and the adjusted total fertility rate directly suggests that the adjusted total fertility rate index can be more effective in enhancing the effectiveness of the policy compared to the total fertility rate index in promoting low fertility policies. Secondly, in regards of fertility, this study found that although there was a low correlation with the number of births in localities with population declines, it was closely related to the proportion, net migration, and distribution of the female population aged 15 to 49 years. This characteristic is closely related to the fact that the high total fertility rate in localities with population declining does not contribute to the increase in the local population size. Also, as can be seen from the analysis results of some national cases, these characteristics are similarly shown in the national aspect. Also, the transition to first marriage and the birth of the first child in regions with a declining population have both a compositional effect and a contextual effect and the transition probability was significantly lower in the case of the leaves from localities with population declines than in the case of the lives in these regions. Thirdly, in regards with mobility, young people, highly educated people, and professional workers tend to leave out of localities with population declines, while middle-aged and older people over 50, agricultural, forestry and fishing workers, and those with low educational attainment tend to remain. The results of this analysis empirically show that the industrial structure and individual occupational characteristics that form the local labor market are important factors in explaining the pattern of local population movement. Fourthly, the distribution of socially vulnerable groups was more noticeable in the localities with population declines. These results are understood as a factor that causes the polarization of the population size/distribution characteristics between regions by further exacerbating the social and economic vulnerability characteristics due to the decrease in the population size and the aging of the population. Fifthly, as results of an empirical analysis of regional policy responses in Korea, it is necessary to diagnose the policy implementation conditions and to design policies to improve the effectiveness of the policies for policies in localities with population declines. In addition, it is necessary to pay more attention to the management policy of improving the settlement environment and the characteristics of the hinterland. Overall, several policy implications are suggested based on the above results of this study. They include utilization of demographic indicators and directions for improvement, the criteria for designation of localities with population declines, the role of the local population monitoring department, and the establishment of a feedback system to enhance the effectiveness of regional policies.