Fertility and the Proportion of Newlyweds in Different Municipalities

Abstract

With the expansion in recent years of policies on low fertility and the rising concern over the potential risk of so-called “local population extinction”, inter-municipal differentials in fertility have become a subject of increasing social interest. However, the heightened interest in local-level fertility usually stops short at media-led comparisons of total fertility rates in ranking order. Comparisons of such nature seem inappropriate at best, as both the structure and dynamics of population vary across municipalities. Also, there has been a form of pervasive reductionism by which the high fertility rates of some municipalities are attributed to local government’s policy support. We attempt in this study to examine the relationship between fertility and the proportion of newlyweds in different areas.