국민연금
; 사회보장자산
; 민간저축
; National Pension Scheme(NPS)
; Social Security Wealth(SSW)
; Private Saving
; Vector Error Correction Model
발행연도
2007-08-31
발행기관
한국경제의분석패널
인용정보
한국경제의 분석, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 113 - 170
초록
본 논문은 1988년 최초 도입된 국민연금제도의 민간부문 저축에 대한 효과를 분석하고 있다. 이를 위해 사회보장자산, 즉 국민연금자산을 Accrued-to-date wealth 개념에 입각하여 총국민연금자산과 순국민연금자산으로 구분하여 계산하였다. 다음으로 Ando-Modigliani의 확장된 생애소득가설을 채택하여 국민연금자산과 민간소비의 관계를 분석하였다. 오차수정모형을 이용하여 사회보장자산(SSW)의 민간소비에 대한 장단기탄력성을 구한 결과, 사회보장자산의 단기탄력성이 두 가지 상이한 사회보장자산에 대해 통계적 유의성은 낮으나 음의 부호로 나타나고 있어 단기적으로 민간부문의 저축을 증가시키는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 한편, 민간소비와 사회보장자산과의 장기탄력성은 두 경우 모두 통계적으로 유의한 양의 값을 보여주고 있어 장기적으로 사회보장자산이 민간저축을 감소시키리라는 시사점을 제시하고 있다.
During the past decades, debate has been focused on whether or not the pay-as-you-go (PAGO) public pension scheme has substantially reduced private saving. The issue is crucial in context of concern about low levels of saving, capital formation, and the resulting impact on economic growth. Korean National Pension Scheme (NPS) introduced in 1988 also has a property of PAGO since the scheme is designed as "low burden - high benefit" structure. It, naturally, might be expected that reduced saving effects due to the NPS would be significant. Considering this characteristic, this paper examines the implied effect of the NPS on private saving using time series data. To do that, we construct the actuarial present value of future benefits of the NPS expected by insured workers (so-called pension wealth or Social Security Wealth). To be more specific, Social Security Wealth (SSW) of NPS is estimated by concept of "Accrued-to-date wealth" adopted to calculate the implicit debt of public pension by the World Bank. The estimation model is based on the traditional life cycle model that includes the SSW variable as the explanatory variable. Short-run elasticities of NPS on consumption are negative. That means national saving would be increased by additional saving of the insured for the purpose of post-retirement saving in short and medium term. On the contrary, long-run elasticities are negative and statistically significant. This results suggest that the NPS would crowd out private saving as the NPS become mature.
