| DC Field | Value |
|---|---|
| dc.contributor.author | 이진면 |
| dc.contributor.author | 이용호 |
| dc.contributor.author | 김재진 |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2015-07-03T06:55:37Z |
| dc.date.available | 2015-07-03T06:55:37Z |
| dc.date.issued | 2014 |
| dc.identifier.isbn | 978-89-6827-227-1 |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.kihasa.re.kr/handle/201002/13879 |
| dc.description.abstract | 본 연구는 저출산 정책 확대 시기 전후로 나타난 가사 활동 시간과 자녀 돌봄시간의 시계열적 변화 및 내재되어 있는 메커니즘을 분석하였다. 남성들의 변화에도 불구하고 여전히 참여율과 시간 사용량이 현저하게 낮고 여성의 참여율과 시간 사용량은 높은 것으로 나타났다. 남성 시간 증가의 대부분은 비구조적인 요인에 의해 주도된 반면, 여성의 가정 관리 시간 감소는 구조적인 요인, 돌봄 시간의 증가는 비구조적인 요인에 기인된 바가 컸다. 자녀 돌봄 시간의 증가는 자녀에 대한 과도한 투자가 이루어지지고 있는 우리사회에서 경제적인 투자 뿐만 아니라 시간적인 투자도 함께 요구하고 있다는 사실을 반영하고 있다. 저출산 시대에서 자녀에 대한 투자는 공적인 영역의 주도하에 이루어 질 필요가 있으며 남성들의 자녀 양육 및 가사 참여를 독려하기 위해서는 인식 개선 사업과 더불어 안정적인 일자리를 보장해 주는 노동 시간 정책이 도모되어야 할 것이다. |
| dc.description.abstract | Abrupt changes in population structure will give considerable effect to economic growth, labor supply, macroeconomy as well as industry structure. As we can expect significant impact of aging on industry become imminent, this study focus on aging and considers changes in industry environment to forecast medium to long term industry structure change and find development strategy. To do this task, we examine supply, trade, employment structure by industries which become basis of our future forecast. For the forecast, we consider both estimation results of industrial-macroeconometric model and the scenarios representing low, middle, high population dynamics. Also, we expand our forecasting period up to the year 2060 since population change in the year 2030 would be remarkable. The findings can be summarized as follows. First, we expect consistent post-industrial movement in our supply structure. Growth in manufacturing and SOC related industry will slowdown, and share of service industry will be expanded. Manufacturing will continue its positive growth trend by improvement of productivity due to research and development, but decrease in relative price by research and development will decrease share of current account value-added to whole industry will follow decreasing trend. The share to service industry will increase due to the situation of economic structure being more dependent on service. Second, importance of manufacturing industry in exports will continue, whereas share of service and SOC-related industry will decrease in exports. Therefore, export dependence on manufacturing will be more deepened as exports structure is kept centered around manufacturing. However, efforts to keep advantage in technology, quality competitiveness is required as we expect consistent catch-up from developing economies, such as, China and India. Also, because we expect not only imbalance between manufacturing and non-manufacturing in exports, but also imbalance within manufacturing industries, remedies to counteract these imbalances are essential. Third, job creation will slowdown by decline of economic growth, and productivity advancement by technology development and improvement in efficiency of supply structure. Also, as lack of labor supply will be worsened by acceleration of aging, employment situation in whole industry will be worsened too. To enhance competitiveness of our industry, improvement of quality competitiveness in manufacturing, and improvement of labor productivity in service sector are required. To achieve this goal, our top priority of improving quality of human resource, and importance of developing plans for industry specific labor force enforcement that matches industry characteristics will become evident. |
| dc.description.tableOfContents | Abstract 1 요약 3 제1장 서론 19 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 21 제2절 연구의 방법 및 구성 22 제3절 인구구조 고령화의 산업적 파급영향 24 제2장 산업구조 변화 25 제1절 산업분류 27 제2절 산업 생산구조 변화 29 제3절 산업 교역구조 변화 35 제4절 산업 고용구조 변화 42 제3장 중장기 산업구조전망 49 제1절 전망절차 51 제2절 산업 생산구조 전망 53 제3절 산업 교역구조 전망 62 제4절 산업 고용구조 전망 71 제4장 결론 79 제1절 전망결과의 요약 81 제2절 정책적 시사점 82 참고문헌 91 부록 93 |
| dc.format | application/pdf |
| dc.language | kor |
| dc.publisher | 한국보건사회연구원 |
| dc.publisher | Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs |
| dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Korea (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 KR) |
| dc.rights | KOGL BY-NC-ND |
| dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/kr/ |
| dc.rights.uri | http://www.kogl.or.kr/info/licenseType4.do |
| dc.title | 초저출산⋅초고령사회와 산업구조 |
| dc.title.alternative | Industrial structure of ultra-low fertility and aged society |
| dc.type | Book |
| dc.type.local | Report |
| dc.subject.keyword | 초저출산 |
| dc.subject.keyword | 산업구조 |
| dc.type.other | 연구보고서 |
| dc.identifier.localId | 연구보고서 2014-22-1-6 |
| dc.identifier.localId | Research Monographs 2014-22-1-6 |
| dc.subject.kihasa | 저출산대응 |
| dc.subject.kihasa | 고령화대응 |
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