인구고령화가 소비구조 및 산업생산에 미치는 영향 연구

제목
인구고령화가 소비구조 및 산업생산에 미치는 영향 연구
the Effect of Population Aging on Consumption Structure and Industrial Production
저자

이진면; 한정민; 김재진; 이용호; 김바우

키워드
인구고령화; 산업생산
발행연도
2013
발행기관
한국보건사회연구원/산업연구원
초록
현행 우리나라 소득보장제도는 농업이나 농촌의 특성을 제대로 반영하지 못하고 있어서 농촌주민의 노후생활을 보장하는 데는 많은 한계가 있다. 따라서 노인일자리는 농촌주민의 노후생활에 있어서 더욱 중요하며, 농촌 노인들의 적성과 능력에 적합한 일자리를 찾아주고 적절하게 지원할 필요가 있다.
노인일자리는 노인의 소득보장을 통해서 경제적인 도움을 줄 뿐만 아니라 노인들이 생산적인 노후생활을 영위하게 함으로써 노인의 삶의 질 향상에 기여한다.
이 연구의 목적은 농촌노인의 일자리 및 노인일자리 참여 실태와 요구사항,그리고 관련 정책의 현황과 문제점 등을 정확하게 파악하여 정책개선 과제를 도출하는 것이다.

This research aims to understand the effects of changes in household structure by aging population on household consumption and industrial production, focusing on microeconomics. To do that, this research conducts projections for household structure toward 2030 reflecting to the three types of population growth scenarios(High, Medium, and Low) reported by Statistics Korea. After that, we project a household consumption based on the analysis on the previous consumption pattern by age groups and industries through integrating projection of household structure. Adding to that, we also utilized I/O model to verify the effects of population aging between consumption structure and industrial production/employment.
Briefly speaking the projection on household consumption, consumption in manufacturing, SOC, and service industry except primary industries would be more affected by aging population under the High scenario which is the highest rate of elderly people than other scenarios. Medicine and medical supplies, food and beverage and coal and petroleum products industry in manufacturing sector and accommodation and food service, medical and health service and owner-occupied housing service in service sector show the relatively large differences between High and Low scenarios due to the industrial characteristics sensitively reacting to the aging population.
According to economic ripple effects of household consumption on industrial production and employment, it is expected that the effect on production inducement in service industry could be larger than manufacturing industry by some slight difference. In the part of employment, inducement effects in service industry could be bigger than manufacturing industry. Hereafter the employment of manufacturing industry would see small losses, while service industry would have higher employment leading the labor market.
Specifically, consumer industries such as food and beverage and clothing industry and coal and petroleum products industry, which is closely related with light and heat expenses in housing among manufacturing industry would be greatly influenced by changes in household consumption. Among service industry, wholesale and retail, food and accommodation, insurance and housing service industries, which are correlated with private consumption would see profound effects of household consumption. Furthermore, medicine and medical instrument in manufacturing sector and health and medical treatment and personal service in service sector are showing different results by each scenario, which seems to be because they are affected a lot by population aging.
목차
Abstract 1
요약 3
제1장 서론 9
제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 9
제2절 기존연구와의 차별성 10
제3절 연구의 구성과 주요내용 13
제2장 인구 및 가구구조의 변화와 전망 17
제1절 인구구조 변화와 전망 17
제2절 가구구조 변화 22
제3절 가구전망 방법론 이해 25
제4절 시나리오별 가구 전망 28
제3장 가계의 소비구조 변화와 전망 45
제1절 가계의 소비구조 변화 45
제2절 가계의 산업별 소비 전망방법 60
제3절 시나리오별 가계소비 전망 62
제4장 가계소비의 산업별 파급 영향 83
제1절 분석방법론 83
제2절 산업별 총산출 파급 영향 84
제3절 산업별 부가가치 파급 영향 90
제4절 산업별 고용 파급 영향 96
제5장 결론 105
제1절 분석결과 요약 105
제2절 정책적 시사점 107
참고문헌 111
부록 115
보고서 번호
연구보고서 2013-31-20
ISBN
978-89-6827-083-3
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